Random musings, visionary ideas, deep pondering & an occasional touch of inspiration. Frequent topics include leadership development, technology, and my reactions to current events and political trends.
11.13.2010
TSA groping
11.03.2010
A missionary in a foreign culture
11.02.2010
11.01.2010
Is It True That “1 in 10 Teens Has Had a Same-Sex Partner”? – Kevin DeYoung
Be suspicious of statistics, especially those that seem too good or too bad or too surprising to be true.
You may have seen this amazing news headline: 1 in 10 Teens Has Had a Same-Sex Partner. The story on AOL Health begins this way:
Nearly one in ten teens has had a same-sex partner — double what previous research has shown, according to a surprising new study.
The latest findings, published in the journal Pediatrics, reveal that 9.3 percent of teenagers say they have had at least one partner who is the same sex as they are.
That’s about twice as many as indicated in a 2002 study of Massachusetts and Vermont teens showing 5 to 6 percent of teenagers had had same-sex partners.
“I don’t know that it means there’s an increase in prevalence,” said Massachusetts psychiatrist Dr. Daniel Carlat, AOL Health’s mental health expert. “As homosexuality has become more and more accepted in society, people are more willing to acknowledge their sexuality than they used to be.”
Wow! Who knew? 1 in 10 American teenagers has had a same-sex partner?! That’s really terrible/terrific (depending on your point of view). What a revelation!
The only problem with this revelation is that it’s false. If the reporter for AOL had taken time to read just the abstract for the Pediatrics article she may have seen the heading “CONCLUSIONS” (in all caps) and noted this summary:
Of sexually active adolescents, 9.3% reported a same-sex partner, a higher estimate than other published rates.
AOL speaks of 1 in 10 teens; the original article concludes 9.3% of sexually active adolescents reported a same-sex partner. There’s a big difference. The survey analyzed data from 17,220 teenagers. Of those, 7,261 (or 42%) reported having had sex. So according this study 58% of teens are not having sex with anyone and 9.3% of those have, had same-sex partners, or 3.9% of the total sample.
There are other reasons to be suspicious of the headline. For starters, as AOL reports later in the article: “The new research analyzed data from 17,220 teenagers in New York City who filled out public health surveys” (emphasis mine). The whole Pediatric article is not available online so I can’t comment on the ins and outs of the methodology. But I have to believe that a study dealing with “teens in New York City who fill out public health surveys” is going to yield some different results than, say, teens in Dallas or Atlanta or Sioux Falls.
And then there’s the disturbing information, which the AOL article also reports, that “About a third of teen boys who had bisexual experiences said they’d had forced sex, compared to 6 percent of boys who reported having only heterosexual experiences.” Later the article says that 36% of girls with bisexual experiences and 35% of boys with bisexual experiences endured some kind of “dating violence” in the past year. So, at the very least, a good chunk of the teens with a “same-sex partner” were forced into this experience. Indeed, the journal abstract concludes: “Adolescents with both-sex partners reported a marked prevalence of dating violence and forced sex.”
The lesson in all this is, once again, to be wary of dubious data. It is not true that 1 in 10 teens have had a same-sex partner. What’s true is that around 4% of teens in New York who filled out a public health survey reported a same-sex experience, and that a not insignificant number of those experiences were forced in some way.
Don’t believe everything you hear.
Be careful how you read and interpret statistics, especially in popular media; sometimes there is a reporting agenda, and more often there is just sloppy reporting or the inability of the reporter to ask the hard questions
10.26.2010
Be smart, Hawaii - look FORWARD!
The winds of political change are really roaring across America and the agenda of the current Presidential Administration and the current Congress is being soundly repudiated and rejected by the electorate. People who had never been involved in politics and had never attended any kind of rally or protest took to the streets by the hundreds of thousands to raise their voices in protest. They were largely discounted by the national media because the crowds were mostly white, mostly middle-aged and older, mostly conservative, mostly Christian, mostly middle-class -- the people nobody ever expected to organize and protest. Every major poll suggests that the liberal/left control of Congress has hit a brick wall and will come to an abrupt end on election day. The Republicans are about to gain decisive control of the House of Representatives, and might gain control of the Senate. If Hawaii is to have an effective presence and voice in Congress for the next two years, it is important that we send to Congress some representatives of the party in power. If we vote along plantation party of the past lines and send Democrats to Washington we will spend the next two years out of sync with every piece of major policy shift about to happen, and will see Hawaii out of the loop. Get smart, Hawaii. Pick a winner from the team that is about to sweep the championship!
10.13.2010
To my voting friends in Hawaii
10.12.2010
The tools keep getting better!
8.17.2010
7.08.2010
Connect with my church on Facebook
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7.07.2010
If ever, NOW!
I like Mufi, generally. He is smart, often church-friendly, and — other than being a Democrat — is someone I could find marginally acceptable. He is tap-dancing around the issue of same-sex marriage a bit. Mufi is LDS (Mormon) and the LDS church has been very active in the fight against legalizing and legitimizing same-sex marriage, but Mufi has yet to come out with a strong traditional marriage only position for fear of alienating his Democrat voter base. Neil? Mr. Abercrombie is your basic classic, ACLU 60s radical leftwing liberal. He lists his religious preference as Non-denominational Protestant, but every position he takes on matters of morality is the opposite of my own, so I am not quite sure what brand of protestantism he means. I think I'd prefer almost anyone over Neil for Governor, but he is a frontrunner. The Democratic Party has anointed him as their choice and he is getting the endorsements of the usual suspects. Thanks, but no thanks.
Which brings us to Duke. Lt. Governor Aiona is a born-again Catholic believer. Of the three major candidates he is the only one who is decisively on the side of righteousness in the matter of same-sex marriage. I have personal confidence that he will push for a public referendum on the issue over further legislative action, and -- if the legislature does take the matter up again -- he would certainly veto it.
For that reason, among others, I will be voting for Duke Aiona for Governor of Hawaii and hope all my friends will do the same.
"But... I was BORN this way!"
For the sake of discussion let me work from the assumption (flawed, in my view) that some people are born with a propensity to be attracted to members of their same gender. An aside is necessary at this point: since some people seem to drift in and out of gayness (Anne Heche, former partner of Ellen DeGeneres seems to be a classic example) and some people in prison become "gay for the stay" it is obvious that no such blanket pronouncement that "all gays are born that way" can be made. A second disclaimer: I frequently hear "who would willingly CHOOSE to be gay when it means being rejected by family and disdained by society?" -- you can understand why the straight world sees that argument is specious during Gay Pride Week. There is no "Gay Shame Week" or "Please help me, I hate being this way week." Gay Pride Week is a time when the most outrageous, flamboyant, in-your-face aspects of the gay lifestyle are celebrated and paraded, so, yeah, it looks a lot like a choice to most people despite the coy denials. (But, I digress…) So, the argument goes, since gays are born that way, society should not only tolerate, but celebrate that difference, and remove all legal constraints and silence any voice that disagrees. Let's follow that logic to its natural conclusion. I am a 60-year-old man. I was probably born with a natural propensity to be attracted to beautiful 18-year-old girls. But I have been married for 39 years to a lovely woman who is no longer 18, but in her late 50s. I am able to keep my propensity for young hard-bodies firmly under control and focus my affections on my wife. If we buy the "I was born this way" argument, what are we to do with those who swear they were born with a natural attraction to children? After all, they can't help it… they were BORN that way.
7.06.2010
Lingle's veto - my thoughts
look again—it leads straight to hell.
Sure, those people appear to be having a good time,
but all that laughter will end in heartbreak.
6.28.2010
TEDTalks (video) - Derek Sivers: Weird, or just different? - Derek Sivers (2009)
Sent from my iPad
5.03.2010
Strike up Ruffles and Flourishes! GOAL!
(He pauses, waiting for the cheers of the crowd to die sown…)
I am very happy to have attained this goal, and hope to keep losing; I'm setting modest incremental goals, so I think I will go for 175 and see how that works.5.01.2010
4.30.2010
4.29.2010
Hawaii Voters – Please remember in November
Here are the people who need to file for unemployment. They are the members of the Hawaii House of Representatives who ignored the expressed will of the electorate and pulled a Pearl Harbor style sneak attack in the final hours of the Legislative Session, Passing HB444, the Civil Unions bill. Keep this list handy. If any of these people are from your area, please vote for anyone with a pulse who runs against them.
| Della Au Belatti 25th Representative District Hawaii State Capitol, Room 331 415 South Beretania Street Honolulu, HI 96813 Phone 808-586-9425; fax 808-586-9431 |
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| Lyla B. Berg 18th Representative District Hawaii State Capitol, Room 324 415 South Beretania Street Honolulu, HI 96813 Phone 808-586-6510; fax 808-586-6511 |
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| Joe Bertram, III 11th Representative District Hawaii State Capitol, Room 311 415 South Beretania Street Honolulu, HI 96813 phone 808-586-8525; fax 808-586-8529 From Maui, toll free 984-2400 + 68525 |
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| Tom Brower 23rd Representative District Hawaii State Capitol, Room 315 415 South Beretania Street Honolulu, HI 96813 phone 808-586-8520; fax 808-586-8524 E-mail repbrower@Capitol.hawaii.gov |
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| Rida Cabanilla 42nd Representative District Hawaii State Capitol, Room 442 415 South Beretania Street Honolulu, HI 96813 phone 808-586-6080; fax 808-586-6081 |
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| Mele Carroll 13th Representative District Hawaii State Capitol, Room 405 415 South Beretania Street Honolulu, HI 96813 Phone 808-586-6790; fax 808-586-6779 From Maui, toll free 984-2400 + 66790 From Molokai and Lanai, toll free 1-800-468-4644 + 66790 |
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| Pono Chong 49th Representative District Hawaii State Capitol, Room 404 415 South Beretania Street Honolulu, HI 96813 phone 808-586-9490; fax 808-586-9496 E-mail repchong@Capitol.hawaii.gov |
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| Denny Coffman 6th Representative District Hawaii State Capitol, Room 317 415 South Beretania Street Honolulu, HI 96813 phone 808-586-9605; fax 808-586-9608 |
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| Faye P. Hanohano 4th Representative District Hawaii State Capitol, Room 303 415 South Beretania Street Honolulu, HI 96813 phone 808-586-6530; fax 808-586-6531 From the Big Island, toll free 974-4000 + 66530 |
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| Robert N. Herkes 5th Representative District Hawaii State Capitol, Room 320 415 South Beretania Street Honolulu, HI 96813 phone 808-586-8400; fax 808-586-8404 From the Big Island, toll free 974-4000 + 68400 E-mail repherkes@Capitol.hawaii.gov |
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| Jon Riki Karamatsu 41st Representative District |
4.27.2010
Turning 11, Pushing 60
She's an adorable kid. I told people that I thought I won the sponsored child lottery when I met her. I pray for her often, think of her often, and have incredible hopes and dreams for her future. She is young, and poor, and has no easy access to a computer or internet access. It is unlikely that she will see this, at least any time soon. But when she is released from poverty, educated and financially secure, she may have her own computer and she may be able to discover this post from her past. I want her to know that her sponsor loved her, worried about her welfare, and supported her dreams.
Happy Birthday, dear Felma. May your 11th year be your best year so far. I have her birthday on my mind as I ponder my own pending birthday. On May 19 I will turn 60. Sixty. SIX-OH. It sounds implausible… impossible to me that I will be sixty in three weeks. I don't feel sixty, but when I look in the mirror I see a face staring back at me that I hardly recognize. Sixty. In three weeks. Wow.




