Random musings, visionary ideas, deep pondering & an occasional touch of inspiration. Frequent topics include leadership development, technology, and my reactions to current events and political trends.
12.29.2010
11.13.2010
TSA groping
11.03.2010
A missionary in a foreign culture
11.02.2010
11.01.2010
Is It True That “1 in 10 Teens Has Had a Same-Sex Partner”? – Kevin DeYoung
Be suspicious of statistics, especially those that seem too good or too bad or too surprising to be true.
You may have seen this amazing news headline: 1 in 10 Teens Has Had a Same-Sex Partner. The story on AOL Health begins this way:
Nearly one in ten teens has had a same-sex partner — double what previous research has shown, according to a surprising new study.
The latest findings, published in the journal Pediatrics, reveal that 9.3 percent of teenagers say they have had at least one partner who is the same sex as they are.
That’s about twice as many as indicated in a 2002 study of Massachusetts and Vermont teens showing 5 to 6 percent of teenagers had had same-sex partners.
“I don’t know that it means there’s an increase in prevalence,” said Massachusetts psychiatrist Dr. Daniel Carlat, AOL Health’s mental health expert. “As homosexuality has become more and more accepted in society, people are more willing to acknowledge their sexuality than they used to be.”
Wow! Who knew? 1 in 10 American teenagers has had a same-sex partner?! That’s really terrible/terrific (depending on your point of view). What a revelation!
The only problem with this revelation is that it’s false. If the reporter for AOL had taken time to read just the abstract for the Pediatrics article she may have seen the heading “CONCLUSIONS” (in all caps) and noted this summary:
Of sexually active adolescents, 9.3% reported a same-sex partner, a higher estimate than other published rates.
AOL speaks of 1 in 10 teens; the original article concludes 9.3% of sexually active adolescents reported a same-sex partner. There’s a big difference. The survey analyzed data from 17,220 teenagers. Of those, 7,261 (or 42%) reported having had sex. So according this study 58% of teens are not having sex with anyone and 9.3% of those have, had same-sex partners, or 3.9% of the total sample.
There are other reasons to be suspicious of the headline. For starters, as AOL reports later in the article: “The new research analyzed data from 17,220 teenagers in New York City who filled out public health surveys” (emphasis mine). The whole Pediatric article is not available online so I can’t comment on the ins and outs of the methodology. But I have to believe that a study dealing with “teens in New York City who fill out public health surveys” is going to yield some different results than, say, teens in Dallas or Atlanta or Sioux Falls.
And then there’s the disturbing information, which the AOL article also reports, that “About a third of teen boys who had bisexual experiences said they’d had forced sex, compared to 6 percent of boys who reported having only heterosexual experiences.” Later the article says that 36% of girls with bisexual experiences and 35% of boys with bisexual experiences endured some kind of “dating violence” in the past year. So, at the very least, a good chunk of the teens with a “same-sex partner” were forced into this experience. Indeed, the journal abstract concludes: “Adolescents with both-sex partners reported a marked prevalence of dating violence and forced sex.”
The lesson in all this is, once again, to be wary of dubious data. It is not true that 1 in 10 teens have had a same-sex partner. What’s true is that around 4% of teens in New York who filled out a public health survey reported a same-sex experience, and that a not insignificant number of those experiences were forced in some way.
Don’t believe everything you hear.
Be careful how you read and interpret statistics, especially in popular media; sometimes there is a reporting agenda, and more often there is just sloppy reporting or the inability of the reporter to ask the hard questions
10.26.2010
Be smart, Hawaii - look FORWARD!
The winds of political change are really roaring across America and the agenda of the current Presidential Administration and the current Congress is being soundly repudiated and rejected by the electorate. People who had never been involved in politics and had never attended any kind of rally or protest took to the streets by the hundreds of thousands to raise their voices in protest. They were largely discounted by the national media because the crowds were mostly white, mostly middle-aged and older, mostly conservative, mostly Christian, mostly middle-class -- the people nobody ever expected to organize and protest. Every major poll suggests that the liberal/left control of Congress has hit a brick wall and will come to an abrupt end on election day. The Republicans are about to gain decisive control of the House of Representatives, and might gain control of the Senate. If Hawaii is to have an effective presence and voice in Congress for the next two years, it is important that we send to Congress some representatives of the party in power. If we vote along plantation party of the past lines and send Democrats to Washington we will spend the next two years out of sync with every piece of major policy shift about to happen, and will see Hawaii out of the loop. Get smart, Hawaii. Pick a winner from the team that is about to sweep the championship!
10.13.2010
To my voting friends in Hawaii
10.12.2010
The tools keep getting better!
8.17.2010
7.08.2010
Connect with my church on Facebook
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7.07.2010
If ever, NOW!
I like Mufi, generally. He is smart, often church-friendly, and — other than being a Democrat — is someone I could find marginally acceptable. He is tap-dancing around the issue of same-sex marriage a bit. Mufi is LDS (Mormon) and the LDS church has been very active in the fight against legalizing and legitimizing same-sex marriage, but Mufi has yet to come out with a strong traditional marriage only position for fear of alienating his Democrat voter base. Neil? Mr. Abercrombie is your basic classic, ACLU 60s radical leftwing liberal. He lists his religious preference as Non-denominational Protestant, but every position he takes on matters of morality is the opposite of my own, so I am not quite sure what brand of protestantism he means. I think I'd prefer almost anyone over Neil for Governor, but he is a frontrunner. The Democratic Party has anointed him as their choice and he is getting the endorsements of the usual suspects. Thanks, but no thanks.
Which brings us to Duke. Lt. Governor Aiona is a born-again Catholic believer. Of the three major candidates he is the only one who is decisively on the side of righteousness in the matter of same-sex marriage. I have personal confidence that he will push for a public referendum on the issue over further legislative action, and -- if the legislature does take the matter up again -- he would certainly veto it.
For that reason, among others, I will be voting for Duke Aiona for Governor of Hawaii and hope all my friends will do the same.
"But... I was BORN this way!"
For the sake of discussion let me work from the assumption (flawed, in my view) that some people are born with a propensity to be attracted to members of their same gender. An aside is necessary at this point: since some people seem to drift in and out of gayness (Anne Heche, former partner of Ellen DeGeneres seems to be a classic example) and some people in prison become "gay for the stay" it is obvious that no such blanket pronouncement that "all gays are born that way" can be made. A second disclaimer: I frequently hear "who would willingly CHOOSE to be gay when it means being rejected by family and disdained by society?" -- you can understand why the straight world sees that argument is specious during Gay Pride Week. There is no "Gay Shame Week" or "Please help me, I hate being this way week." Gay Pride Week is a time when the most outrageous, flamboyant, in-your-face aspects of the gay lifestyle are celebrated and paraded, so, yeah, it looks a lot like a choice to most people despite the coy denials. (But, I digress…) So, the argument goes, since gays are born that way, society should not only tolerate, but celebrate that difference, and remove all legal constraints and silence any voice that disagrees. Let's follow that logic to its natural conclusion. I am a 60-year-old man. I was probably born with a natural propensity to be attracted to beautiful 18-year-old girls. But I have been married for 39 years to a lovely woman who is no longer 18, but in her late 50s. I am able to keep my propensity for young hard-bodies firmly under control and focus my affections on my wife. If we buy the "I was born this way" argument, what are we to do with those who swear they were born with a natural attraction to children? After all, they can't help it… they were BORN that way.
7.06.2010
Lingle's veto - my thoughts
look again—it leads straight to hell.
Sure, those people appear to be having a good time,
but all that laughter will end in heartbreak.
6.28.2010
TEDTalks (video) - Derek Sivers: Weird, or just different? - Derek Sivers (2009)
Sent from my iPad
5.03.2010
Strike up Ruffles and Flourishes! GOAL!
(He pauses, waiting for the cheers of the crowd to die sown…)
I am very happy to have attained this goal, and hope to keep losing; I'm setting modest incremental goals, so I think I will go for 175 and see how that works.5.01.2010
4.30.2010
4.29.2010
Hawaii Voters – Please remember in November
Here are the people who need to file for unemployment. They are the members of the Hawaii House of Representatives who ignored the expressed will of the electorate and pulled a Pearl Harbor style sneak attack in the final hours of the Legislative Session, Passing HB444, the Civil Unions bill. Keep this list handy. If any of these people are from your area, please vote for anyone with a pulse who runs against them.
| Della Au Belatti 25th Representative District Hawaii State Capitol, Room 331 415 South Beretania Street Honolulu, HI 96813 Phone 808-586-9425; fax 808-586-9431 |
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| Lyla B. Berg 18th Representative District Hawaii State Capitol, Room 324 415 South Beretania Street Honolulu, HI 96813 Phone 808-586-6510; fax 808-586-6511 |
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| Joe Bertram, III 11th Representative District Hawaii State Capitol, Room 311 415 South Beretania Street Honolulu, HI 96813 phone 808-586-8525; fax 808-586-8529 From Maui, toll free 984-2400 + 68525 |
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| Tom Brower 23rd Representative District Hawaii State Capitol, Room 315 415 South Beretania Street Honolulu, HI 96813 phone 808-586-8520; fax 808-586-8524 E-mail repbrower@Capitol.hawaii.gov |
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| Rida Cabanilla 42nd Representative District Hawaii State Capitol, Room 442 415 South Beretania Street Honolulu, HI 96813 phone 808-586-6080; fax 808-586-6081 |
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| Mele Carroll 13th Representative District Hawaii State Capitol, Room 405 415 South Beretania Street Honolulu, HI 96813 Phone 808-586-6790; fax 808-586-6779 From Maui, toll free 984-2400 + 66790 From Molokai and Lanai, toll free 1-800-468-4644 + 66790 |
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| Pono Chong 49th Representative District Hawaii State Capitol, Room 404 415 South Beretania Street Honolulu, HI 96813 phone 808-586-9490; fax 808-586-9496 E-mail repchong@Capitol.hawaii.gov |
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| Denny Coffman 6th Representative District Hawaii State Capitol, Room 317 415 South Beretania Street Honolulu, HI 96813 phone 808-586-9605; fax 808-586-9608 |
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| Faye P. Hanohano 4th Representative District Hawaii State Capitol, Room 303 415 South Beretania Street Honolulu, HI 96813 phone 808-586-6530; fax 808-586-6531 From the Big Island, toll free 974-4000 + 66530 |
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| Robert N. Herkes 5th Representative District Hawaii State Capitol, Room 320 415 South Beretania Street Honolulu, HI 96813 phone 808-586-8400; fax 808-586-8404 From the Big Island, toll free 974-4000 + 68400 E-mail repherkes@Capitol.hawaii.gov |
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| Jon Riki Karamatsu 41st Representative District |
4.27.2010
Turning 11, Pushing 60
She's an adorable kid. I told people that I thought I won the sponsored child lottery when I met her. I pray for her often, think of her often, and have incredible hopes and dreams for her future. She is young, and poor, and has no easy access to a computer or internet access. It is unlikely that she will see this, at least any time soon. But when she is released from poverty, educated and financially secure, she may have her own computer and she may be able to discover this post from her past. I want her to know that her sponsor loved her, worried about her welfare, and supported her dreams.
Happy Birthday, dear Felma. May your 11th year be your best year so far. I have her birthday on my mind as I ponder my own pending birthday. On May 19 I will turn 60. Sixty. SIX-OH. It sounds implausible… impossible to me that I will be sixty in three weeks. I don't feel sixty, but when I look in the mirror I see a face staring back at me that I hardly recognize. Sixty. In three weeks. Wow.4.25.2010
2 Pounds to go!
Almost there!
4.19.2010
Not as bad as I feared
4.11.2010
The effect of the American Diet?
Michelangelo's David...
…after eating the American diet for a couple of years.
4.08.2010
Land of the Morning Calm? Really?
4.06.2010
Eye-opening international perspectives
4.03.2010
3.30.2010
Travelocity - Hawaiian Air - Korean Air problem
3.23.2010
Hang on - they're coming for your freedom
20 Ways ObamaCare Will Take Away Our Freedoms
The sections described below are taken from HR 3590 as agreed to by the Senate and from the reconciliation bill as displayed by the Rules Committee.
1. You are young and don’t want health insurance? You are starting up a small business and need to minimize expenses, and one way to do that is to forego health insurance? Tough. You have to pay $750 annually for the “privilege.” (Section 1501)
2. You are young and healthy and want to pay for insurance that reflects that status? Tough. You’ll have to pay for premiums that cover not only you, but also the guy who smokes three packs a day, drink a gallon of whiskey and eats chicken fat off the floor. That’s because insurance companies will no longer be able to underwrite on the basis of a person’s health status. (Section 2701).
3. You would like to pay less in premiums by buying insurance with lifetime or annual limits on coverage? Tough. Health insurers will no longer be able to offer such policies, even if that is what customers prefer. (Section 2711).
4. Think you’d like a policy that is cheaper because it doesn’t cover preventive care or requires cost-sharing for such care? Tough. Health insurers will no longer be able to offer policies that do not cover preventive services or offer them with cost-sharing, even if that’s what the customer wants. (Section 2712).
5. You are an employer and you would like to offer coverage that doesn’t allow your employers’ slacker children to stay on the policy until age 26? Tough. (Section 2714).
6. You must buy a policy that covers ambulatory patient services, emergency services, hospitalization, maternity and newborn care, mental health and substance use disorder services, including behavioral health treatment; prescription drugs; rehabilitative and habilitative services and devices; laboratory services; preventive and wellness services; chronic disease management; and pediatric services, including oral and vision care.
You’re a single guy without children? Tough, your policy must cover pediatric services. You’re a woman who can’t have children? Tough, your policy must cover maternity services. You’re a teetotaler? Tough, your policy must cover substance abuse treatment. (Add your own violation of personal freedom here.) (Section 1302).
7. Do you want a plan with lots of cost-sharing and low premiums? Well, the best you can do is a “Bronze plan,” which has benefits that provide benefits that are actuarially equivalent to 60% of the full actuarial value of the benefits provided under the plan. Anything lower than that, tough. (Section 1302 (d)(1)(A))
8. You are an employer in the small-group insurance market and you’d like to offer policies with deductibles higher than $2,000 for individuals and $4,000 for families? Tough. (Section 1302 (c) (2) (A).
9. If you are a large employer (defined as at least 101 employees) and you do not want to provide health insurance to your employee, then you will pay a $750 fine per employee (It could be $2,000 to $3,000 under the reconciliation changes). Think you know how to better spend that money? Tough. (Section 1513).
10. You are an employer who offers health flexible spending arrangements and your employees want to deduct more than $2,500 from their salaries for it? Sorry, can’t do that. (Section 9005 (i)).
11. If you are a physician and you don’t want the government looking over your shoulder? Tough. The Secretary of Health and Human Services is authorized to use your claims data to issue you reports that measure the resources you use, provide information on the quality of care you provide, and compare the resources you use to those used by other physicians. Of course, this will all be just for informational purposes. It’s not like the government will ever use it to intervene in your practice and patients’ care. Of course not. (Section 3003 (i))
12. If you are a physician and you want to own your own hospital, you must be an owner and have a “Medicare provider agreement” by Feb. 1, 2010. (Dec. 31, 2010 in the reconciliation changes.) If you didn’t have those by then, you are out of luck. (Section 6001 (i) (1) (A)).
13. If you are a physician owner and you want to expand your hospital? Well, you can’t (Section 6001 (i) (1) (B). Unless, it is located in a country where, over the last five years, population growth has been 150% of what it has been in the state (Section 6601 (i) (3) ( E)). And then you cannot increase your capacity by more than 200% (Section 6001 (i) (3) (C)).
14. You are a health insurer and you want to raise premiums to meet costs? Well, if that increase is deemed “unreasonable” by the Secretary of Health and Human Services it will be subject to review and can be denied. (Section 1003)
15. The government will extract a fee of $2.3 billion annually from the pharmaceutical industry. If you are a pharmaceutical company what you will pay depends on the ratio of the number of brand-name drugs you sell to the total number of brand-name drugs sold in the U.S. So, if you sell 10% of the brand-name drugs in the U.S., what you pay will be 10% multiplied by $2.3 billion, or $230,000,000. (Under reconciliation, it starts at $2.55 billion, jumps to $3 billion in 2012, then to $3.5 billion in 2017 and $4.2 billion in 2018, before settling at $2.8 billion in 2019 (Section 1404)). Think you, as a pharmaceutical executive, know how to better use that money, say for research and development? Tough. (Section 9008 (b)).
16. The government will extract a fee of $2 billion annually from medical device makers. If you are a medical device maker what you will pay depends on your share of medical device sales in the U.S. So, if you sell 10% of the medical devices in the U.S., what you pay will be 10% multiplied by $2 billion, or $200,000,000. Think you, as a medical device maker, know how to better use that money, say for R&D? Tough. (Section 9009 (b)).
The reconciliation package turns that into a 2.9% excise tax for medical device makers. Think you, as a medical device maker, know how to better use that money, say for research and development? Tough. (Section 1405).
17. The government will extract a fee of $6.7 billion annually from insurance companies. If you are an insurer, what you will pay depends on your share of net premiums plus 200% of your administrative costs. So, if your net premiums and administrative costs are equal to 10% of the total, you will pay 10% of $6.7 billion, or $670,000,000. In the reconciliation bill, the fee will start at $8 billion in 2014, $11.3 billion in 2015, $1.9 billion in 2017, and $14.3 billion in 2018 (Section 1406).Think you, as an insurance executive, know how to better spend that money? Tough.(Section 9010 (b) (1) (A and B).)
18. If an insurance company board or its stockholders think the CEO is worth more than $500,000 in deferred compensation? Tough.(Section 9014).
19. You will have to pay an additional 0.5% payroll tax on any dollar you make over $250,000 if you file a joint return and $200,000 if you file an individual return. What? You think you know how to spend the money you earned better than the government? Tough. (Section 9015).
That amount will rise to a 3.8% tax if reconciliation passes. It will also apply to investment income, estates, and trusts. You think you know how to spend the money you earned better than the government? Like you need to ask. (Section 1402).
20. If you go for cosmetic surgery, you will pay an additional 5% tax on the cost of the procedure. Think you know how to spend that money you earned better than the government? Tough. (Section 9017).
3.22.2010
Real practical advice: sandwiches
3.21.2010
Another pound down
Posting a day early since I plan to be out and about all day Monday and might forget to do it.
I am down exactly one more pound for the week, despite being locked in my office for days on end completing papers and projects during Fuller finals week, which meant I did NOT eat as well or as often as normal, and I probably nervously snacked more. I am pretty sure I didn't drink nearly as much water as I should have last week, because the constant interruptions for bathroom breaks was messing me up! SO... in short, I'll take one pound and run with it!3.15.2010
The ides of March weigh-in
The magic number for this week is 185.7 pounds. That's a loss of 1.2 pounds for the past week, so the downward trend continues. A loss of a pound a week works well for me at this stage. Think about it… if a person could lose a pound a week, that would be 52 pounds per year. (The inverse of this is the way weight gain creeps up on us. If we GAIN a pound a week, we put on more than 50 pounds in a year.)
The quest for the skinny me hidden under layers of padding continues. Stay tuned.3.08.2010
March 8 weigh-in
There you have it. 186.9 -- actually just under a half pound MORE than a week ago, but that's a relief. I spent a large part of the past week at a conference, eating out, having buffet lunches with not always the most healthy options, sitting in sessions 12 hours a day unable to eat meals on a good schedule and no exercise.
I was really thinking "this weigh-in could be a disaster… I might have gained 5 pounds this week!" The number on the scales this morning were a huge relief.You might actually see my shirt tucked in more often!
3.05.2010
What's a Magic Jack, and does it work?
You purchase a small device about the size of a Zippo lighter: it is 2.5 inches x 1.5 inches x a little more than 1/2 inch thick. It plugs into the USB port on your computer and downloads a small piece of controller software that enables dialing on your computer. The Magic Jack device has a jack into which you can plug any standard telephone that uses an RJ-11 connector:
That's all there is to it. Pick up the phone and dial. It works. You can order it online at http://www.magicjack.com or purchase it at local retailers like Target, WalMart, Radio Shack, Walgreens and others. The price ranges from about $39 – $49 dollars, but that includes one year of service at the $19.95 annual rate.
In terms of practical value for churches? If you travel on short-term missions, or sponsor/support a missionary in another country, a Magic Jack enables them to avoid expensive cell phone charges and -- if they have a reasonably fast internet connection -- they can make and receive calls on a Magic Jack and stay in communication regularly.3.03.2010
The advantages of a Google Voice number
What is Twitter, and why would I want it?
3.01.2010
Café Church
The chain that owns Costa Coffee also owns lots of pubs and restaurants, so you might expect to see it rolled out there as well."
2.28.2010
March 1 Weigh-In
2.22.2010
Week 4 weigh-in: If I were a stock, I'd be up 1/2
(Sorry for the blurry photo!)
Yep - I am actually UP 1/2 pound this week. It was a week of introducing more variety back into my diet, eating on the run, and less discipline that past weeks just because of my schedule. Restaurants are my enemy while I try to maintain a steady weight loss, and this is a period of my life when restaurants will be unavoidable. I am not terribly discouraged by this, even though I hoped to see some loss. This is another week, and another period of measurement. I am STILL more than 10 pounds lighter than when I started, and on my way toward being formerly fat.My overall feeling of health and wellness is tremendously improved, and I press on toward the goal!
2.15.2010
Week 3 weigh-in: a milestone!
I broke a psychological barrier at this weigh-in; I now weigh LESS than 190 for the first time in decades. 118.4 means I lost only another 1.8 pounds, but it seems really significant to break below 190.
We went out for Valentine's Day/Amy's Birthday, and chose Tanaka of Tokyo as a healthier option -- grilled, fresh foods, smaller portions… we even broke the diet at that meal with a tiny piece of birthday cake with ice cream, and I ate a taste of rice! I was worried that it would wreck the progress, but I feel great that I still trend downward.
2.12.2010
Stalled this week?
It seems too early for a plateau so I am not sure if it's portion control or what? I don't load the plate, don't go back for seconds and work the treadmill 6 days a week. I guess we shall see on my Monday weigh-in...
2.08.2010
Felma on my mind
This week marks the one year anniversary of a life-changing trip and met a little girl who embedded herself into my heart. On February 10, 2009 I boarded a flight in Honolulu headed for Manila, in The Philippines, and then further south to Davao, in Mindanao. A few days later, on Valentine's Day — my wife, Amy's birthday — I came face to face with a smiling 9-year-old girl named Felma dressed in her Sunday best.
Felma is the child we sponsor through Compassion International and it was an incredible opportunity to be able to travel to her city and spend time with her.Here's a video produced by the amazing folks at Studio Red about that trip: http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=1125476817413&oid=70267985589
14-day weight loss weigh-in
There's the magic scales photo. As of this morning I have lost a total of 9.6 pounds since I started 14 days ago — that's 4.8% of my original body weight. My starting weight was 199.8 and the first week I lost 6.1 pounds, weighing in at 193.7. This morning's weigh-in at 190.2 equals a second week loss of another 3.5 pounds.
I confess: I was hoping for just 1/4 pound more loss to take me into the 180s (even 189.9) but I am still pleased with the progress as I enter Phase 2 of the program and introduce a little more variety into the diet. It will be nice to have a taste of fruit and some whole grains now and then. If I can continue to lose a pound or two each week in Phase 2 I can achieve my goal range of between 175-180 pounds over the next 6 weeks. The end of March, beginning of April would be a great time to fit back into my skinny clothes!14-day weight loss weigh-in
There's the magic scales photo. As of this morning I have lost a total of 9.6 pounds since I started 14 days ago — that's 4.8% of my original body weight. My starting weight was 199.8 and the first week I lost 6.1 pounds, weighing in at 193.7. This morning's weigh-in at 190.2 equals a second week loss of another 3.5 pounds.
I confess: I was hoping for just 1/4 pound more loss to take me into the 180s (even 189.9) but I am still pleased with the progress as I enter Phase 2 of the program and introduce a little more variety into the diet. It will be nice to have a taste of fruit and some whole grains now and then. If I can continue to lose a pound or two each week in Phase 2 I can achieve my goal range of between 175-180 pounds over the next 6 weeks. The end of March, beginning of April would be a great time to fit back into my skinny clothes!